The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has warned of severe global economic consequences if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue, calling for the immediate reopening of the strategic shipping route.
Speaking to the press, Guterres outlined multiple scenarios, including a worst-case projection in which the strait remains closed until the end of the year. In such a situation, he warned global inflation could surge beyond 6 percent, while economic growth could fall sharply to 2 percent, pushing the world toward a possible recession.
He said the humanitarian impact would be severe, particularly for vulnerable populations, with rising poverty, food insecurity, and broader risks to political and social stability.
Even in an optimistic scenario where restrictions are lifted immediately, the UN chief cautioned that supply chains would take months to recover, with global growth still expected to decline from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent and inflation rising to 4.4 percent.
In a mid-range scenario where disruptions continue through midyear, global growth could drop to 2.5 percent, inflation could climb to 5.4 percent, and tens of millions more people could be pushed into poverty and hunger.
Guterres emphasized that the longer the crisis continues, the more severe and irreversible the economic damage becomes, describing the Strait of Hormuz as a vital artery for global trade and energy supply.
He called for the restoration of navigational freedoms in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2817, urging all parties to ensure safe, predictable, and insurable maritime traffic.
“The world is waiting,” Guterres said, stressing that dialogue and de-escalation are urgently needed to prevent further deterioration of the situation.