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Taiwan’s Contingency and Japan

It seems that the Japanese government is intentionally making erroneous statements about Taiwan and escalating tensions in the Asia Pacific region which has various socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic spillover ramifications for peace, stability and harmony.

Additionally, its lifting the ban on collective self-defense, revising the “Three Non-Nuclear Principles,” and deploying of missiles on Yonaguni Island near the island of Taiwan has accelerated chaos and uncertainty among the regional countries. Hence the incumbent Japanese government has risked ASEAN’s unity, prosperity and trans-regional connectivity through revival of militaristic tendencies in its country.

Moreover, the writing of a second letter to the UN chief by Fu Cong, China’s permanent representative to the United Nations, regarding Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s erroneous remarks about Taiwan vividly reflects serious concerns of the Chinese foreign ministry and of course its government.

Obviously, it has been almost a month since Takaichi made the irresponsible and harsh remarks at the Diet on November 7 terming the “Taiwan contingency” could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. Unfortunately, till now Takaichi has not withdrawn her words, and the international community is waiting for a clarification from Japan about this matter because regional peace and stability is at stake.

Furthermore, instead of cooling the heat down, Japan went a step further. According to Japanese media reports, most recently, Takaichi held a telephone meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in which Takaichi highlighted that the security of the Euro-Atlantic and the so-called Indo-Pacific is devoted and cooperation between Japan-NATO and NATO-IP4 (Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea) is strategically vital.

Comparative studies reveal that Japan and NATO have had frequent high-level interactions/meetings and their cooperation has become increasingly institutionalized during recent times. In January, 2025 the Mission of Japan to NATO was officially launched in Brussels. Japan has become the country outside Europe that has the closest ties and deepest cooperation with NATO. Thus Japan is trying to materialize the dreams of a NATO-Asia.

Evidently, it is crystal clear that Japan actively plays the role of a vanguard in promoting NATO-ization of the Asia-Pacific region, with the goal of externally enhancing its status and influence as a major power and internally pushing forward its military expansion.

Comedy of errors has not yet stopped and again the Japanese prime minister made the statement that “the security of the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific is inseparable” at a time when her invalid remarks about Taiwan have endangered the China-Japan relations and injected uncertainty to the region. So, strategically fretful Japan is reaching out to its global partners to break the current impasse and, at the same time, consolidate camp confrontation.

Definitely, Takaichi’s statements and policy actions destabilized Japan’s relations with China and after her phone call with US President Donald Trump, Japan is having strategic anxiety. Japan desires to enhance its ties with NATO and, at the same time, create a circle of containment against China which is not acceptable to the Chinese government and its people.

In this regard, Takaichi’s statement of linking the security of Europe to that of Asia is a continuation of the recent perilous moves by Japan to break away from the restraints of its pacifist constitution and return to the path of militarism, with the consequences of bringing the camp confrontation in Euro-Atlantic to the Asia-Pacific.

It ranges from the attempt to revise Japan’s long-standing Three Non-Nuclear Principles, prohibiting nuclear weapons from entering Japan’s territory, the reported Type 03 missile export plan to the Philippines, to the intention to intervene militarily on the Taiwan question, which seems to be a potential threat to the region and the globe alike.

Japan’s provocative moves have already triggered concerns and oppositions inside Japan. The Japanese national media reported that senior members of the cross-party Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians’ Union conveyed to the Chinese side their request to send a delegation of lawmakers to China within the year in hopes to mend the deteriorating situation which clearly demonstrating genuine concerns of the various Japanese political parties and factions to resolve the dispute through dialogue and diplomacy.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war highlights that Europe has not yet adopted a new approach to deal with the emerging bitter realities of power politics and bringing NATO to the Asia-Pacific region will only increase anxiety of regional countries and further create instability. Therefore, if Japan really cares about the security in the region it should stop playing fire with the Taiwan question and stop stimulating the security nerves of regional countries.

It is a bitter reality that Japan heavily depends on America and without American backing, it cannot successfully pursue its action of militarization. There are over 50,000 American troops in Japan, and the US provides a nuclear umbrella, so Japan cannot do anything fundamental without the Americans at least acquiescing to it.

Thus US President Trump called on Prime Minister Takaichi to lower the temperature, it was clear that there was no support. Rationally it indicates that

the US does not support her remarks. Japan should only act if the US wants it to act. But if Japan acts on its own, disregarding American interests, the Americans will put a stop to it.

In summary, it seems that the Japanese prime minister is playing with fire and putting the regional peace, stability, blue economy, environment and security at stake inching towards direct confrontation with China; however, the Chinese government is showing complete restraint and trying to resolve the issue through dialogue and diplomacy.

Nevertheless, increasingly irresponsible statements of the Japanese prime minister have created fuss and China cannot take it lightly, because Taiwan’s question is very crucial to it.

The Japanese prime minister’s erroneous remarks on Taiwan, supporting possible military intervention in the Taiwan Straits, gravely undermined China’s core interests, shattered the political foundation of China-Japan relations and provoked outrage and condemnation across China fully exposing the ambition of Japan’s right-wing forces to revive militarism.

This provocation is the undeniable origin of this crisis which should be rectified as soon as possible.

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